Farming Near an Urban Enviroment

Adversity comes in many different forms for our nation’s farmers. From unpredictable weather patterns and fluctuating commodity prices to seemingly ever-increasing input costs and pest complexes that can keep even the most seasoned consultant guessing at times, adversity seems to be a word synonymous with farming.

For one Mississippian who farms just south of the Tennessee/Mississippi state line where Olive Branch (Desoto County) meets the southern boundary of Memphis (Shelby County), In a recent interview with Delta Farm Press, Wes Hoggard, owner of Hoggard Farms (and Stateline Turf and Tractor, a John Deere dealership), has to keep his eyes on farm land replete with a very specific kind of adversity with which more and more farmers are having to deal — urban encroachment.

From 1990 to 2000, the population of Olive Branch exploded from around 3,000, to over 21,000. From 1990 to 2010, Olive Branch was the fastest growing city in the United States with an astounding growth rate of 838 percent. Mississippi Highway 302 (known by most in the area as Goodman Road) is a major transportation corridor running thru Olive Branch, with its most western point ending in Walls, and the most eastern point terminating just west of Mount Pleasant.

Urban Movement

Hoggard has been farming in this area for over 20 years — long before urban encroachment veered its multi-faceted commercial head. “I’ve been lucky in one respect when it comes to proximity to warehouses, semi-trucks and subdivisions…,” he says, “…because the fields that I farm are, for the most part, linked together with suitable access roads which greatly reduces the number of times I have to move my equipment.”

But Hoggard not only has to deal with changing pest complexes each year, he also has to deal with what he calls “an encroachment complex.” It’s easy to understand his “personally-coined” term as we both turn our heads toward the highway, where a steady stream of cars, trucks and school bus traffic screams by at 65 mph — while we sit in his John Deere 9670 Bullet Rotor Combine just 50 feet from the east-bound shoulder of the four-lane highway.

The fields Hoggard has been farming in this area vary in their relationship to traffic density. “Some fields are still tucked away from most urbanization but some, especially in the last five years, have become neighbors to more and more warehouses, subdivisions and commercial real estate developments,” he adds.

When it comes to making applications on whatever crop he’s currently producing, his only option is a ground rig sprayer. “Ag pilots won’t even consider flying in this area due to the number of roof tops (single unit family dwellings), but even with a ground rig — if there’s a slight breeze, I have to delay spraying, especially if the wind is blowing toward someone’s backyard,” Hoggard says.

And he can’t even think about burning off a wheat field. “That gets people, and the local fire department, way too anxious,” as he shakes his head, pointing to a subdivision that rests adjacent to a set of massive power lines — both of which are juxtaposed along one of the larger fields he’s currently farming.

“Not knowing what land will (or will not) be available to me each year also makes it impossible to forward contract any of the crops I produce,” he adds.

Making it Work

Hoggard is a 30-year veteran producer who grows soybeans, wheat, corn and milo on fields that range in size from 5 to 120 acres. Any given year, Hoggard may farm anywhere from 1,200 to 1,800 acres of land on which he rarely drops down a plow thanks to advice from his long-time friend, John Bradley.

“Dr. Bradley and I have been friends for a long time, and his advice has helped me be successful at no-till farming for as long as I can remember. It saves me time and labor, but the number one thing it’s done for me is, it has preserved so much land from erosion,” says Hoggard.

Hoggard took over some pasture ground and thought it would require tilling before he could put down a seed, but Bradley told him to let the land lay out over the winter. “The winter freeze and subsequent thawing would mellow the soil that was very compacted from years of cattle grazing. Dr. Bradley was correct, it worked,” Hoggard says.

Hoggard also has more than his share of unwanted activity on the land he farms. “I've got great neighbors, and I don’t hear much out of them, but every so often I’ll have a four-wheel drive truck or someone on a four-wheeler come on the land and see how much damage they can do — all in the name of having fun,” he says.

Hoggard also finds an occasional trespasser who thinks just because it is farmland, it’s ok to hunt on it. “The local game warden is a friend of mine. I keep his number handy, but I really don’t have to call him too often,” he adds.

There’s no shortage of wildlife on the land he farms, despite the constant activity from local businesses, warehouses and planes taking off from Olive Branch Airport (which was named the busiest Fixed Based Operation in the United States in 2012). “It’s absolutely amazing…,” he says, referring to the number of deer, turkey and other wildlife. “You would think this urbanization would push them further out. But it’s nothing to see a herd of 15 or more deer on one of the field access roads right next to the highway early in the morning or late in the day.”

Hoggard Farms is pretty much a one-man operation. “I do the majority of the farming myself while my son, John, holds down our John Deere dealership. When I do need help, he, along with my other son, Ben, are both quick to lend a hand,” says Hoggard.

He also has a daughter, Rachel, who is a school teacher (but when Hoggard calls, she gladly comes to the farm and drives the grain cart). “I’m also lucky enough to have a good friend who is an independent businessman and has a very flexible schedule. He just likes driving a combine — so I let him,” says Hoggard.

Looking Ahead

It should come as no surprise that with increased urbanization encroaching on more and more farming operations, Extension Service personnel across the country are receiving higher numbers of phone calls complaining about things like oversized equipment on roads or highways and smells with which the general public are just not familiar.

Desoto County Extension Agent Dan Haire, a 20-year row-crop veteran, moved into the area three years ago. “With the population growing as fast as it is, I find myself working mostly with homeowners rather than farmers,” says Haire. “It’s something I've had to do not out of choice, but out of necessity, to help keep local farmers in the good graces of their neighbors who just don’t know about or understand farming.”

With constant encroachment by numerous warehousing businesses, schools, shopping centers and subdivisions, it’s very likely more of the land around Hoggard’s fields will be sold for commercial development. “It’s disheartening to see beautiful country land turned into a concrete jungle,” he laments.

Hoggard doesn't exactly know what lies ahead for his operation — as far as what land will be available in the next year or two — but he sees the tell-tale signs offering more and more land for sale. He’s hoping to find more farmable land in more remote, less urbanized locations in the near future.

Food Police Strike Again!

Hembree Brandon from Delta Farm Press recently wrote an article about the issues with food and dietary issues in America.

We all chuckle at the Chick-fil-A TV commercials in which cows stare balefully at hamburger-consuming humans and wear crudely-lettered signs saying “Eat Mor Chikin.”

And we snicker at the anti-animal agriculture folks who lambaste cows as culprits in global warming because of the methane they produce from belching/flatulence (anywhere from 25 gallons to 50-plus gallons per cow per day they contend).

For years, they've advocated less meat in our diets (even “meatless Mondays”) and more plant-based foods, such as beans, lentils, nuts, and grains (and one wonders, doesn't this kind of diet swap animal gases for human gases?).

There’s little doubt millions of Americans, and particularly we southerners, eat too much of less-than-healthy foods — one has only to check the stats on obesity and all the ills that engenders, chief among them diabetes, which has become rampant in many areas of the country.

The alarming trend of obesity in school age kids, along with high blood pressure and pre-diabetes, has led to the banishment of snack/soft drink machines in many school systems and the USDA has decreed that schools should serve healthier, more nutritious foods in their meal programs.

Now, though, the food police are reported taking a new tack on forthcoming guidelines. A draft proposal to the USDA by the Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee, is said to recommend diets lower in meat-based foods and higher in plant-based foods as not only better for humans — but healthier for the environment.

Wait just a minute, say ag organizations, it’s one thing to advocate for healthier diets, but adding an environmental component goes too far. A cattleman’s organization terms it “absurd,” and members of Congress from agricultural states are jumping into the fray — in the massive $1.1 trillion government spending bill approved last month, Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack was enjoined to include only nutrition/dietary recommendations, not “extraneous factors” in the final guidelines.

Current USDA dietary “food pyramid” guidelines — which are updated every five years — suggest that people should eat lean meats, but reports are that the advisory panel has considered whether that language should be continued. The panel’s December draft recommendations noted that a healthy diet should include fewer red meats and processed meats than currently consumed by Americans.

In its work over the past year, the panel is reported to have debated the possibility of including sustainability as a dietary goal with “lesser environmental impact.”

North American Meat Institute President and CEO Barry Carpenter, says the change, “made behind closed doors during a lunch break” isn't ‘rooted in science” and doesn't “ make good public policy.”  He terms the action “arbitrary and capricious” and says the committee “fails to recognize the nutritional value lean meat offers and is ignoring the scientific evidence supporting its inclusion in the American diet.”

Soybean Talk

Matt Miles says he's one of a small group of farmers he considers "some of the best in the United States."

Some might consider that bragging except for one thing: That small group of growers has harvested more than 100 bushels of soybeans per acre, some of them, including Miles, for two years in a row in the Arkansas Soybean Association's Grow for the Green Challenge.

Miles was a speaker at the National Conservation Systems Cotton and Rice Conference in Baton Rouge, La. (The Cotton and Rice Conference, the name it took when it started 18 years ago, has now been expanded to include the Southern Corn and Soybean Conference.) Delta Farm Press covered the conference.

Miles and his wife, Sherrie, and son, Layne, farm 6,300 acres in Ashley and Desha Counties in southeast Arkansas, where at least a half dozen growers have harvested more than 100 bushels of soybeans in the Arkansas Soybean Association contest. About 85 percent of the Miles acreage is planted in corn and soybeans, a reversal from the years prior to 2006 when it mostly was in cotton.

"Our soybeans always used to be on our poorest land," says Miles. "We took the least amount of care of them. We might have a 100-acre field with 25 acres of clay, and we would put the soybeans down there."

Miles credits fellow Southeast Arkansas producer Jim Whittaker with getting him on the road to growing high-yielding soybeans. "I called him and told him 'y'all are growing some of the best soybeans around, and I'd like to know what you're doing?"

He also pointed to Billy Gardner, his farm manager in Ashley County, and Rob Dedman, his consultant from Rison, Ark., as being integral parts of his operation. "These two guys push me to push these soybeans harder."

Most of the soybeans he grows are Pioneer varieties, he said. He will try other brands, planting them on 15 to 20 acres to see how they compare to his standby varieties. He said he plants about 150,000 seed per acre because "invariably, we plant when it's too cold, and we up the seeding rate to make sure we get a stand."

Miles has been an advocate of twin-row planters until now. "We drag a single-row planter around with us wherever we go," he noted. "For several years, we were averaging six or seven bushels more per acre with twin rows. But the last two years, we only harvested a bushel to a bushel-and-a-half per acre on twin rows. So we're rethinking some of that."

For more on the Grow for the Green Challenge, visit http://www.arkansassoybean.com/Yield-Contest-.html

Wheat Producers Should Pay Attention

Who would have predicted that gasoline prices would be below $2 per gallon (down from $3.50 in June 2014), that oil prices would be below $50 per barrel (down from $110 in August 2014), and that Perryton, Texas, corn prices would bottom out below $3.40 (down from a peak of $8.90 in August 2012)?  South West Farm Press reported that wheat producers should learn from these price declines.

Wheat prices have declined. In July 2014, wheat prices were near $8.50. By June 2014, cash wheat prices were near $7.50. By the end of September 2014, wheat prices had fallen to $5.30, which is not nearly as low as wheat prices could go.

What current oil, gasoline, and corn prices show is that if U.S. wheat ending stocks go above 850 million bushels and world wheat ending stocks go above 7.5 billion bushels, Oklahoma and Texas cash wheat prices could go below $4. In June 2010, Oklahoma and Texas cash wheat prices were near $3.50.

The good news is that relatively tight hard red winter wheat stocks and cold temperatures, with little to no snow cover, are supporting wheat prices. Oklahoma and Texas wheat prices have increased from the $5.30 September low to near $6. At this writing, wheat may be contracted for 2015 harvest delivery for about $6.05 in central Oklahoma and about $5.90 in the Texas Panhandle.

At this writing, U.S. hard red winter (HRW) wheat 2014/15 marketing year ending stocks are projected to be 227 million bushels compared to a five-year average of 333 million bushels. The HRW wheat stocks-to-use ratio is 30 percent compared to a five-year average of 37 percent. Relatively low HRW wheat stocks, the number of planted acres and current wheat conditions lower the odds of 2015/16 HRW wheat ending stocks going above 333 billion bushels and wheat prices going below $4.50.

A negative price factor is the value of the U.S. dollar compared to other major currencies. Since early July 2014, the index measuring the value of the U.S. dollar to other major currencies has increased from 80 to near 92.

A 15 percent (80 points to 92 points) increase in the value of the dollar effectively increases the cost of exported wheat by 15 percent. Assume that the HRW, 12 percent protein wheat price at the Texas Gulf (FOB) is $7.50. If the index of the dollar was 80 rather than the current 92, the effective price would be $6.52. The increased value of the dollar has effectively made the cost of U.S. wheat about $1 higher to foreign buyers.

Producers could believe that $7.50, as compared to $6.50, implies a higher farm level price. The fact is that this $1 has no direct impact on producer prices. A direct impact is that the higher value of the dollar increases the cost of U.S. wheat, export demand is less and producer prices are lower.

Producers ask what the petroleum industry’s reaction will be to extremely low prices. High-cost oil wells will be shut down; fewer oil wells will be drilled; and the least efficient distilleries will be closed, resulting in decreased supplies and higher prices.

Evidence exists that for the most part, the petroleum industry has prepared for lower prices. Extremely low prices happen. Smart managers prepare for extremely low prices by building cash reserves. Then when prices go back up, they will be in business to take advantage of profitable prices.

Wheat producers need to do the same thing. That is, know that $4 wheat is a possibility and that staying in business requires being prepared with cash reserves and having a plan for extremely low prices.

Pumping Lowering Water Levels

Thanks to a severe, multiyear drought and increased demand for water, groundwater levels in the Upper Rio Grande Basin in Colorado, New Mexico and Far West Texas have dropped as much as 200 feet through the years.

A water expert at New Mexico State University (NMSU) warns those levels are just the tip of the iceberg as a sluggish recharge of the river, combined with increased groundwater pumping in the years ahead, will create worse shortages in the near future.

Brian Hurd, an agricultural economics professor and president of the Universities Council on Water Resources was quoted recently in the El Paso Times, saying that the threat of coming water shortages in New Mexico and Texas represents a serious problem for farmers up and down the entire basin region.

"The real big deal is going to be the change in the intensity of pumping," Hurd told the Times (http://bit.ly/1ricO5E).

Hurd and government hydrologists agree that river flows in the Rio Grande will suffer more as the demand for groundwater increases as a result of growing population density and the need for more water for agricultural and industrial activities.

In a 2013 joint Upper Rio Grande Impact Assessment prepared by the U.S. Department of the Interior's Bureau of Reclamation, the U.S. Army Corp of Engineers and the Sandia Laboratory Climate Security Program, even at the current annual use of groundwater throughout the Basin, critical water shortages will intensify in the years ahead.

According to that assessment, in the Upper Rio Grande Basin of Colorado and New Mexico, water management challenges posed by a highly variable and extremely limited water supply have been exacerbated by a prolonged drought.

In addition to problems associated with heavy groundwater pumping, the assessment determined that pronounced changes in climate in future years are anticipated for the Upper Rio Grande. The climate modeling used to support the study suggested that average temperatures in the Upper Rio Grande Basin may rise by an additional 4 degrees to 6 degrees F by the end of the 21st century.

Simulations

These model simulations do not consistently project changes in annual average precipitation in this basin, but they do project changes to the magnitude, timing, and variability of inflows to the system. In addition to groundwater demand, the study detailed the following:

• Decreases in overall water availability

Supplies of all native sources to the Rio Grande are projected to decrease on average by about one third, while flows in the tributaries that supply the imported water of the San Juan-Chama Project are projected to decrease on average by about one fourth.

• Changes in the timing of flows

The seasonality of flows is projected to change. Anticipated changes include earlier snowmelt runoffs as well as increased variability in the magnitude, timing, and spatial distribution of streamflow and other hydrologic variables. Projections indicate that this basin will experience a decrease in summertime flows and less of a decrease (or potentially even an increase) in wintertime flows.

• Increases in the variability of flows

All simulations used in this study project an increase in the month-to-month and inter-annual variability of flows over the course of the century. The frequency, intensity, and duration of both droughts and floods are projected to increase.

While climate change will increase the risks of water shortage in the basin area, of more immediate concern is how communities and industry will react to current shortages. While recent drought conditions have lowered reservoir levels and decreased inflows to lakes, increased pumping of groundwater has helped to sustain adequate resources in the short term.

Challenges Ahead

But hydrologists say the time for such groundwater relief may be short lived as demand increases and groundwater levels continue to drop.

Zhuping Sheng, a hydrologist at the Texas A&M AgriLife Research and Extension Center in El Paso, draws a comparison with putting money in the bank.

"We're withdrawing more than we are depositing," he says.

He points out that in some areas around El Paso, for example, groundwater levels have dropped by as much as 200 feet over the last century.

Hydrologists say as groundwater continues to diminish as a result of slower recharge and greater use, population levels along the basin are expected to rise, adding a greater strain on the region's hydrology.

Adding to the overall problems are both the ongoing drought and lighter-than-normal snowpacks in the San Juan mountains in recent years. Water experts say significant and beneficial rains over the last two summer and fall seasons have helped, but it was "like putting a Band-Aid on a major wound."

As farmers prepare for planting in 2015, concerns are elevated over whether there will be enough water to bring their crops to another successful harvest. Good rains in the second half of this year should provide enough water to get the crop started, but experts say another dry summer could be devastating if those rains don't continue late into the growing season.