This week the soybean market is fulfilling one of Murphy’s Laws: “The market will do whatever is necessary to fool the majority.” According to a report by Agriculture.com, cash soybean bids broke above the $1.00 rally level on October 29. Strength at that time led many to believe there were large gains still ahead. Since then, action has leveled off, and prices have become much less volatile. Bets that prices could go straight up were tempered by two days, November 4 and November 19, when they broke below the dollar level. Both times there was a quick rebound back above that “magic“ level.
Scanning the charts of cash bids and March futures gives the impression that the high was on October 31 with the price of $9.69. However, the ability of the market to rebound every time the support level is broken makes me think that the bids could hold in this area or higher for a long time.
In addition to chart action that is somewhat bullish is the fact that basis has finally started to improve. I admit that the move is small and not consistent across all price levels. It is at least better than having the basis deteriorate as the record soybean crop finally comes to town. Hope that the end of the year will see much better basis and gradually improving cash bids.
Meanwhile, corn bids continue to plug along, pennies up and pennies down. The net result has been a gradually improving cash bid. That is better than having violent large moves up and down but not going anywhere. At least the price today is such that market analysts have stopped taking about cash corn prices below $3.00. With the size of the 2014 crop, it may take until spring for corn to be above production cost if indeed it ever gets there for most of us.
All cash bids quoted in this column are from Midwest Farmers Co-op in southeast Nebraska.
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