The Return of El Nino?

As most of you know, predicting the weather is about like throwing a dart at a board.  No one knows for sure what's going to happen.  However, it's Spring!  And us in the agriculture industry can't help but watch the sky's and the evening weather forecast.

Farmers are making the preparations.  In some places the seeds are already down and in Southern Texas, the sorghum is already knee high is some places.

Generally the forecasts are calling for a continued drought in the West and Southwest.  However, the National Weather Service, independent weather forecasters and university weather scientists are hinting at a change.  What is that change?  El Nino!  This could be very welcome news for the Southwest including an increased chance of rain in the mountains.

 Right now the National Weather Climate Prediction Center is calling for a 50-50 chance of an El Nino this year.  An El Nino is a fluctuation in the water temperatures of the tropical Pacific Ocean.  An El Nino means warmer water and an La Nina means colder water.

What Does This Mean For Farmers?

It all depends on the location of your farm or ranch, influences from water temps, wind and an ever-shifting tropical jet stream.  If there is no El Nino the Southwest could be looking at something reminiscent of the dust bowl.  However, even if El Nino is late developing that could mean a wet snowy winter which would lead into a great 2015.  

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has been noticing some positive changes in the water temperatures in the Pacific.

Nothing is written in stone.  So like most folks I'm suspicious of long range weather forecasts.  But anytime there is a possibility to help us get out of this drought then I'm all for it.  Is El Nino returning?  I sure hope so.