Pumping Lowering Water Levels

Thanks to a severe, multiyear drought and increased demand for water, groundwater levels in the Upper Rio Grande Basin in Colorado, New Mexico and Far West Texas have dropped as much as 200 feet through the years.

A water expert at New Mexico State University (NMSU) warns those levels are just the tip of the iceberg as a sluggish recharge of the river, combined with increased groundwater pumping in the years ahead, will create worse shortages in the near future.

Brian Hurd, an agricultural economics professor and president of the Universities Council on Water Resources was quoted recently in the El Paso Times, saying that the threat of coming water shortages in New Mexico and Texas represents a serious problem for farmers up and down the entire basin region.

"The real big deal is going to be the change in the intensity of pumping," Hurd told the Times (http://bit.ly/1ricO5E).

Hurd and government hydrologists agree that river flows in the Rio Grande will suffer more as the demand for groundwater increases as a result of growing population density and the need for more water for agricultural and industrial activities.

In a 2013 joint Upper Rio Grande Impact Assessment prepared by the U.S. Department of the Interior's Bureau of Reclamation, the U.S. Army Corp of Engineers and the Sandia Laboratory Climate Security Program, even at the current annual use of groundwater throughout the Basin, critical water shortages will intensify in the years ahead.

According to that assessment, in the Upper Rio Grande Basin of Colorado and New Mexico, water management challenges posed by a highly variable and extremely limited water supply have been exacerbated by a prolonged drought.

In addition to problems associated with heavy groundwater pumping, the assessment determined that pronounced changes in climate in future years are anticipated for the Upper Rio Grande. The climate modeling used to support the study suggested that average temperatures in the Upper Rio Grande Basin may rise by an additional 4 degrees to 6 degrees F by the end of the 21st century.

Simulations

These model simulations do not consistently project changes in annual average precipitation in this basin, but they do project changes to the magnitude, timing, and variability of inflows to the system. In addition to groundwater demand, the study detailed the following:

• Decreases in overall water availability

Supplies of all native sources to the Rio Grande are projected to decrease on average by about one third, while flows in the tributaries that supply the imported water of the San Juan-Chama Project are projected to decrease on average by about one fourth.

• Changes in the timing of flows

The seasonality of flows is projected to change. Anticipated changes include earlier snowmelt runoffs as well as increased variability in the magnitude, timing, and spatial distribution of streamflow and other hydrologic variables. Projections indicate that this basin will experience a decrease in summertime flows and less of a decrease (or potentially even an increase) in wintertime flows.

• Increases in the variability of flows

All simulations used in this study project an increase in the month-to-month and inter-annual variability of flows over the course of the century. The frequency, intensity, and duration of both droughts and floods are projected to increase.

While climate change will increase the risks of water shortage in the basin area, of more immediate concern is how communities and industry will react to current shortages. While recent drought conditions have lowered reservoir levels and decreased inflows to lakes, increased pumping of groundwater has helped to sustain adequate resources in the short term.

Challenges Ahead

But hydrologists say the time for such groundwater relief may be short lived as demand increases and groundwater levels continue to drop.

Zhuping Sheng, a hydrologist at the Texas A&M AgriLife Research and Extension Center in El Paso, draws a comparison with putting money in the bank.

"We're withdrawing more than we are depositing," he says.

He points out that in some areas around El Paso, for example, groundwater levels have dropped by as much as 200 feet over the last century.

Hydrologists say as groundwater continues to diminish as a result of slower recharge and greater use, population levels along the basin are expected to rise, adding a greater strain on the region's hydrology.

Adding to the overall problems are both the ongoing drought and lighter-than-normal snowpacks in the San Juan mountains in recent years. Water experts say significant and beneficial rains over the last two summer and fall seasons have helped, but it was "like putting a Band-Aid on a major wound."

As farmers prepare for planting in 2015, concerns are elevated over whether there will be enough water to bring their crops to another successful harvest. Good rains in the second half of this year should provide enough water to get the crop started, but experts say another dry summer could be devastating if those rains don't continue late into the growing season.

2001: A Farm Oddessy

In the classic science-fiction film Star Wars, the character Han Solo turns to Luke Skywalker during a heated space travel scene and says "Traveling through hyperspace ain't like dusting crops, boy!"

Well, Han Solo may be wrong.

Agriculture.com recently covered a story about  SpaceX.  A company that is one of a handful of companies in the world whose scientists and engineers are producing rockets and spacecrafts that company leaders including CEO Elon Musk hope will one day lead to a completely privatized space travel industry with an ultimate goal of "making humanity a multi-planet species." The company is based in Hawthorne, California, but has facilities and employees in Florida, Washington, D.C., and Texas.

What's this got to do with agriculture? SpaceX officials recently announced a farmer in Texas will soon become one of the company's 3,000 employees.

Responsibilities of the job include planning and executing budgets, operating and maintaining machinery, nailing down crop inputs and maintaining the ability to "understand the implications of the weather and make contingency plans," according to a SpaceX report. The job takes at least 10 years of "row crop farming experience" in central Texas and "which shall include a working knowledge of every process required for crop production in the region," according to SpaceX. "Experience in repair and preventative maintenance of John Deere agricultural equipment."

So, is SpaceX sending a farmer to space? Though company officials have been tight-lipped about why they're hiring a farmer, there's speculation that the position has as much to do with the company's operating budget as it does coming up with ways to grow food in space. Agricultural use nets tax-exempt status for not just land, but the tools, equipment and inputs used for growing crops or raising livestock in Texas.

Though SpaceX's ultimate goals in hiring a farmer have yet to be specifically outlined, it's clear company leaders intend for the position's occupant to both continue farm work and have at least some role in the company's operations.

"This position will be required to work around test schedules as necessary to ensure the successful crop production does not interfere with testing progress," according to a statement from SpaceX's website.

BASF Commitment to Research

What is BASF researching?  And what is the amount of effort and money they are putting in?  Markus Heldt, President, BASF Crop Protection recently answered those questions in an interview by Agriculture.com.

How to Feed 9 Billion People

This is your challenge.  In 30 years you're going to have to feed 9 billion people with less land and less water.  How do you do that?

To do this, farmers will have to use the best technology available.  Including some that isn't entirely popular with the public.

South West Farm Press recently covered a event featuring speakers discussing this very topic.  The most important thing is communication with the public.  The event was the Rolling Plains Spring Field Day held at the Texas A&M AgriLife Research station near Chillicothe.  The event featured Julie Borlaug, granddaughter of the late Dr. Norman Borlaug, a Noble Peace Prize laureate known internationally as the "Father of the Green Revolution."

As well as speaking she moderated a wheat seed industry panel consisting of: Jon Rich with AgriPro-Syngenta in Junction City, KS; Marla Barnett with Limagrain Cereal Seeds in Wichita, KS; Sid Perry with WestBred-Monsanto in Filer, ID; and Janet Lewis with Bayer CropScience in Lincoln, NE.

March 25th was my grandfathers' birthday and many people have asked me if he was here today what would his message be about how we are going to feed 9 billion people by 2050," Borlaug said.  "I think he would probably tell you there are three areas we need to be concerned about."

Involve the Next Generation

"It's important for us to continue to train the next generation of agricultural scientist," Borlaug said.  "We need to engage students; we need engage those even outside of agriculture, because it's going to take people from various backgrounds across different disciplines to help figure out how to feed 9 billion people."

This will require new economic and political policies, advancements in engineering, medicine energy, but mostly agriculture.

We need what her grandfather called "hunger fighters."  Entrepreneurs, scientist, researchers, policy makers and farmers.

They need to embrace bold new ideas and work with people along different disciplines.  They must engage smallhold farmers and private and public sectors to come up with sustainable ideas.

"So we need to continue to reinvest in that and move our generation forward, so they will become the next Norm Borlaug and leaders in agriculture," she said.

Funding Dilema

"We need to re-engage the funding entities and those outside of agriculture to understand why their support is so important," Borlaug said.  "We are going to need a lot of technology and improvements to feed 9 billion people, especially with climate change and scarce natural resources."

The third thing she stressed is - "the misunderstanding and misinformation that's spread about agriculture."  She said that mainly comes from the anti-science, anti-GMO groups who don't understand the basic role of biotechnology in agriculture.

Borlaug said her grandfather was known to say "fear of change is the greatest obstacle to progress."

The ag sector must address the public differently.  People need to understand how important new technology, innovation and biotechnology are to our future.

"It is no longer enough to just have collective support of the research and private sector.  We must gain the support of the general public in order to move agriculture research forward."

Most arguments against these advancements are emotional and not rational.  They resonate because they fuel the anti-corporate mentality.

She brings up the GMO golden rice crop in the Philippines.  "Do you as biotech opponents really want to deny golden rice to those children who could so profoundly benefit?  Are you willing to condemn them to blindness and death out of your own ignorance?  I say out of your opposition, you are somewhat responsible for their vitamin A deficiency and blindness."

This is not to say biotechnology is the only solution.  "but we must understand that a multi-faceted integrated solution is needed."

Wheat Breeding

Wheat is the most important food crop in the world.  It's time to reinvest time and energy into the crop.  

"What's happened over the years is that in the U.S., wheat has not been looked upon as a high staple crop like corn and soybeans," Rich said.

There is a lower cost of molecular markers and the ability to "speed breed" to bring greater yields.  

"I think it has been largely customer-driven - seedsmen and farmer driven," Barnett said.  "We've seen the demand for wheat yields to be increased.  Farmers have long been asking, "Why am I still getting the same wheat yields my grandfather got while my corn yields have tripled?"

The industry has learned a lot from corn, soybeans, cotton and canola that can be applied to wheat.

GM Wheat?

Right now there is no GMO wheat on the market.  However, acceptance will be necessary the panel suggested.

"Most people don't know what GMO means; they don't know that GMO is a technique, a tool that can be used in the breeding toolbox," Lewis said.  "There is a lot of confusion on what GMO is, and it has been a slow process of education for the general public.  There is a perception issue."

The breeders agreed it is important to look into GMO and non-GMO solutions.  And if there is a non-GMO answer then that's the route to peruse because it's cheaper.  They also agreed research needs to be done on nitrogen use efficiency, heat tolerance and water use efficiency.

"We have a skeptical public, which is okay; but we also have a gullible public, which is discouraging," Perry said.  "They are willing to accept the popular view on something rather than scientific research.  So take every opportunity to educate the people around you."

GMO acceptance is more likely to come with food safety.

"It's an emotional issue to a lot of people, and an education issue," he said.  "We need to educate the people on what GMO traits can do and how we feed people correctly.  We can reduce the amount of pesticides; we can reduce the amount of nitrogen we put in the soil; we can reduce the amount of irrigation we have to apply to get those maximum yields."

In the end, the most important thing to the public will be the pocket book.  We need to make a loaf of bread cheaper and the production cheaper for the farmer.

"It's a real luxury here in the U.S. as long as our bellies are full and food is cheap, we can complain about having GMOs in our products," Perry said.  "But that is a real disservice to others in the world who don't have that luxury.  I don't know how we can get that across to our public; a lot of it is in their hands."

Pesticide Looneys and Conspiracy Theorist

Recently, Delta Farm Press wrote an article debunking many myths surrounding pesticides and GMO crops.  Of course they were ready for some responses from the community on this subject.  To see some of the responses click here.

Now think a little about what was said.  The only logical conclusion is that these people haven't done their research.  Instead of getting their facts and thinking about it logically, they responded with emotion.  Let's take a look at some of these responses and clear some things up.

One person wrote, "China, who purchases a large quantity of corn, has refused to purchase this year because of its GMO status.  Now farmers who have these crops are (affected) because they can't sell them.  The current battle now is should these seed companies be held liable because farmers can't sell them.  It all goes back to pesticides.  Research GMO and the companies that make them.  Your point of view is misinformed.  Do some research."

According to the USDA, which anyone can look up, overall US corn exports has increased by 300 million bushels since the beginning of the year.  And farmers don't trade their products with foreign nations.  Traders do that.

Then their's this.  "It would seem that ignoring the scientific evidence of the impact to humans from endocrine disrupting ag chemicals, that ignoring the scientific research showing the impact on humans from the cancers and immune diseases these and other ag chemicals cause and even ignoring the yield data, showing NO yield increases and in most cases LOWER yields from GMO crops you, the Penton Press Group continue to further the agenda of corporate chemical America.  It is sad ... and criminal.  But congratulations are in order:  you are now fully, legally, accomplices to their crime."

There is no evidence that if you use crop protection products properly that any of what this reader brings up would happen.  Also, to suggest standard practices in farming is somehow illegal is beyond the pale.

What would happen if we band GMO's and pesticides?  Sit back and think before reacting to that question.  Farmers work with a horribly tight deadline to feed the world.  To sustain humanity day upon day, year after year, decade after decade.  They have to deal with changing and unpredictable weather and now growing radicalism and regulation.

What would happen?  Millions would starve to death and global wars would break out.  What sounds more criminal to you?

The Return of El Nino?

As most of you know, predicting the weather is about like throwing a dart at a board.  No one knows for sure what's going to happen.  However, it's Spring!  And us in the agriculture industry can't help but watch the sky's and the evening weather forecast.

Farmers are making the preparations.  In some places the seeds are already down and in Southern Texas, the sorghum is already knee high is some places.

Generally the forecasts are calling for a continued drought in the West and Southwest.  However, the National Weather Service, independent weather forecasters and university weather scientists are hinting at a change.  What is that change?  El Nino!  This could be very welcome news for the Southwest including an increased chance of rain in the mountains.

 Right now the National Weather Climate Prediction Center is calling for a 50-50 chance of an El Nino this year.  An El Nino is a fluctuation in the water temperatures of the tropical Pacific Ocean.  An El Nino means warmer water and an La Nina means colder water.

What Does This Mean For Farmers?

It all depends on the location of your farm or ranch, influences from water temps, wind and an ever-shifting tropical jet stream.  If there is no El Nino the Southwest could be looking at something reminiscent of the dust bowl.  However, even if El Nino is late developing that could mean a wet snowy winter which would lead into a great 2015.  

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has been noticing some positive changes in the water temperatures in the Pacific.

Nothing is written in stone.  So like most folks I'm suspicious of long range weather forecasts.  But anytime there is a possibility to help us get out of this drought then I'm all for it.  Is El Nino returning?  I sure hope so.

Climate Changes Impact on Agriculture

Irregardless of what's causing climate change it is in fact changing.  Those in the agriculture industry that don't adjust to this are bound to be left behind.  What are the major things in climate change taking place and what can you do about it?  According to agriculture.com, in a interview with climatologist Mark Seeley from the University of Minnesota here are a few things to look for.

General Temps Are Rising.

What does this mean?  

• Changes in depth and duration of soil and lake freeze
• More rapid breakdown in residue
• Later fall nitrogen applications
• Change in survival rates of pests, parasites, plant pathogens and soil microbes
• Change in plant hardiness zones
• Longer growing seasons

Higher Frequency of dewpoints of 70 degrees or Higher

• Seasonal dynamics of pathogens, parasites, insects and microorganism populations
• Increased workload in heat-related healthcare
• Increased stress on livestock

Changes in Precipitation Quantity and Character

• Mitigation of erosion
• Altered irrigation, tile damage, runoff, etc
• Impact on insurance
• Change in sewer runoff design
• Amplified flow means mitigation of flooding potential

What Can You Do?

First off don't ignore it.  Irregardless of what you believe is causing it, it is happening.  Climate change should be impacting what you're doing.  Don't get bogged down in worrying about what's happening globally.  Pay attention to what's happening in your area.  Take those changes into account and make the appropriate changes.

What did Seeley predict in this years planting season?  According to agriculture.com he's predicting a cool and wet season.  However, pay attention to your region.  Just because it's cool and wet in say Georgia, doesn't mean it won't be warm and dry in Wyoming.

For more information on Seeley's report click on the link below.

Climate & Weather Education