Pumping Lowering Water Levels

Thanks to a severe, multiyear drought and increased demand for water, groundwater levels in the Upper Rio Grande Basin in Colorado, New Mexico and Far West Texas have dropped as much as 200 feet through the years.

A water expert at New Mexico State University (NMSU) warns those levels are just the tip of the iceberg as a sluggish recharge of the river, combined with increased groundwater pumping in the years ahead, will create worse shortages in the near future.

Brian Hurd, an agricultural economics professor and president of the Universities Council on Water Resources was quoted recently in the El Paso Times, saying that the threat of coming water shortages in New Mexico and Texas represents a serious problem for farmers up and down the entire basin region.

"The real big deal is going to be the change in the intensity of pumping," Hurd told the Times (http://bit.ly/1ricO5E).

Hurd and government hydrologists agree that river flows in the Rio Grande will suffer more as the demand for groundwater increases as a result of growing population density and the need for more water for agricultural and industrial activities.

In a 2013 joint Upper Rio Grande Impact Assessment prepared by the U.S. Department of the Interior's Bureau of Reclamation, the U.S. Army Corp of Engineers and the Sandia Laboratory Climate Security Program, even at the current annual use of groundwater throughout the Basin, critical water shortages will intensify in the years ahead.

According to that assessment, in the Upper Rio Grande Basin of Colorado and New Mexico, water management challenges posed by a highly variable and extremely limited water supply have been exacerbated by a prolonged drought.

In addition to problems associated with heavy groundwater pumping, the assessment determined that pronounced changes in climate in future years are anticipated for the Upper Rio Grande. The climate modeling used to support the study suggested that average temperatures in the Upper Rio Grande Basin may rise by an additional 4 degrees to 6 degrees F by the end of the 21st century.

Simulations

These model simulations do not consistently project changes in annual average precipitation in this basin, but they do project changes to the magnitude, timing, and variability of inflows to the system. In addition to groundwater demand, the study detailed the following:

• Decreases in overall water availability

Supplies of all native sources to the Rio Grande are projected to decrease on average by about one third, while flows in the tributaries that supply the imported water of the San Juan-Chama Project are projected to decrease on average by about one fourth.

• Changes in the timing of flows

The seasonality of flows is projected to change. Anticipated changes include earlier snowmelt runoffs as well as increased variability in the magnitude, timing, and spatial distribution of streamflow and other hydrologic variables. Projections indicate that this basin will experience a decrease in summertime flows and less of a decrease (or potentially even an increase) in wintertime flows.

• Increases in the variability of flows

All simulations used in this study project an increase in the month-to-month and inter-annual variability of flows over the course of the century. The frequency, intensity, and duration of both droughts and floods are projected to increase.

While climate change will increase the risks of water shortage in the basin area, of more immediate concern is how communities and industry will react to current shortages. While recent drought conditions have lowered reservoir levels and decreased inflows to lakes, increased pumping of groundwater has helped to sustain adequate resources in the short term.

Challenges Ahead

But hydrologists say the time for such groundwater relief may be short lived as demand increases and groundwater levels continue to drop.

Zhuping Sheng, a hydrologist at the Texas A&M AgriLife Research and Extension Center in El Paso, draws a comparison with putting money in the bank.

"We're withdrawing more than we are depositing," he says.

He points out that in some areas around El Paso, for example, groundwater levels have dropped by as much as 200 feet over the last century.

Hydrologists say as groundwater continues to diminish as a result of slower recharge and greater use, population levels along the basin are expected to rise, adding a greater strain on the region's hydrology.

Adding to the overall problems are both the ongoing drought and lighter-than-normal snowpacks in the San Juan mountains in recent years. Water experts say significant and beneficial rains over the last two summer and fall seasons have helped, but it was "like putting a Band-Aid on a major wound."

As farmers prepare for planting in 2015, concerns are elevated over whether there will be enough water to bring their crops to another successful harvest. Good rains in the second half of this year should provide enough water to get the crop started, but experts say another dry summer could be devastating if those rains don't continue late into the growing season.

Waiting for Proper Time to Irrigate

With seemingly abundant water supplies in the five Delta states of Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri and Tennessee, many can't understand why anyone would ever have to irrigate.  Crop histories show that at some point in every season irrigation would pay dividends in the five state area.

Recently Jason Krutz, irrigation specialist with Mississippi State University, took an ag editor from Delta Farm Press on a tour to educate about water issues facing the Mississippi Delta.  He discussed how the use of flow meters, moisture sensors, and surge valves have helped farmers grow the same, and sometimes, more crops with less water.

Krutz and several members of the Mississippi Sustainable Water Resources Task Force stopped at a field operated by Tim Clements near Leleand, MS.  They demonstrated how the new technology could one day help farmers alter the current situation in which Delta farmers are removing more water from the alluvial aquifer than it is taking in.

Pesticide Looneys and Conspiracy Theorist

Recently, Delta Farm Press wrote an article debunking many myths surrounding pesticides and GMO crops.  Of course they were ready for some responses from the community on this subject.  To see some of the responses click here.

Now think a little about what was said.  The only logical conclusion is that these people haven't done their research.  Instead of getting their facts and thinking about it logically, they responded with emotion.  Let's take a look at some of these responses and clear some things up.

One person wrote, "China, who purchases a large quantity of corn, has refused to purchase this year because of its GMO status.  Now farmers who have these crops are (affected) because they can't sell them.  The current battle now is should these seed companies be held liable because farmers can't sell them.  It all goes back to pesticides.  Research GMO and the companies that make them.  Your point of view is misinformed.  Do some research."

According to the USDA, which anyone can look up, overall US corn exports has increased by 300 million bushels since the beginning of the year.  And farmers don't trade their products with foreign nations.  Traders do that.

Then their's this.  "It would seem that ignoring the scientific evidence of the impact to humans from endocrine disrupting ag chemicals, that ignoring the scientific research showing the impact on humans from the cancers and immune diseases these and other ag chemicals cause and even ignoring the yield data, showing NO yield increases and in most cases LOWER yields from GMO crops you, the Penton Press Group continue to further the agenda of corporate chemical America.  It is sad ... and criminal.  But congratulations are in order:  you are now fully, legally, accomplices to their crime."

There is no evidence that if you use crop protection products properly that any of what this reader brings up would happen.  Also, to suggest standard practices in farming is somehow illegal is beyond the pale.

What would happen if we band GMO's and pesticides?  Sit back and think before reacting to that question.  Farmers work with a horribly tight deadline to feed the world.  To sustain humanity day upon day, year after year, decade after decade.  They have to deal with changing and unpredictable weather and now growing radicalism and regulation.

What would happen?  Millions would starve to death and global wars would break out.  What sounds more criminal to you?

Wheat Damage Likely

The freezing temperatures we saw mid-April have led many to believe the Wheat crop may have been damaged.

According to an interview on South West Farm Press, Jeff Edwards from Oklahoma State Extension who is a wheat specialist said, "Most of Oklahoma spent at least four hours below freezing last night and some areas spent an extended period of time below 28 degrees.  While temperatures in the wheat canopy might have remained slightly higher than reported air temperatures, they were still probably low enough to result in significant injury to wheat."

The one thing that may save it all is that most farmers weren't able to plant til late this season..

Generally, when wheat is flowering, freeze damage can occur when temperatures are as high as 32 degrees and stay there for more than two hours or more says Clark Neely, AgriLife Extension small grains and oil seeds specialist in College Station Texas.

There is no way of telling what kind of damage the crop has suffered for another week or two.

Neely said, "It really depends upon the weather after the freeze.  If it becomes hot and dry, we'll see symptoms a lot sooner.  If it stays cool, it'll take a little bit longer for those symptoms to show up."

"Kansas wheat may be damaged as well," said Jim Shroyer, Kansas State Research and Extension crop production specialist.  "Wheat in the jointing stage is most at risk."

The Return of El Nino?

As most of you know, predicting the weather is about like throwing a dart at a board.  No one knows for sure what's going to happen.  However, it's Spring!  And us in the agriculture industry can't help but watch the sky's and the evening weather forecast.

Farmers are making the preparations.  In some places the seeds are already down and in Southern Texas, the sorghum is already knee high is some places.

Generally the forecasts are calling for a continued drought in the West and Southwest.  However, the National Weather Service, independent weather forecasters and university weather scientists are hinting at a change.  What is that change?  El Nino!  This could be very welcome news for the Southwest including an increased chance of rain in the mountains.

 Right now the National Weather Climate Prediction Center is calling for a 50-50 chance of an El Nino this year.  An El Nino is a fluctuation in the water temperatures of the tropical Pacific Ocean.  An El Nino means warmer water and an La Nina means colder water.

What Does This Mean For Farmers?

It all depends on the location of your farm or ranch, influences from water temps, wind and an ever-shifting tropical jet stream.  If there is no El Nino the Southwest could be looking at something reminiscent of the dust bowl.  However, even if El Nino is late developing that could mean a wet snowy winter which would lead into a great 2015.  

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has been noticing some positive changes in the water temperatures in the Pacific.

Nothing is written in stone.  So like most folks I'm suspicious of long range weather forecasts.  But anytime there is a possibility to help us get out of this drought then I'm all for it.  Is El Nino returning?  I sure hope so.