Pumping Lowering Water Levels

Thanks to a severe, multiyear drought and increased demand for water, groundwater levels in the Upper Rio Grande Basin in Colorado, New Mexico and Far West Texas have dropped as much as 200 feet through the years.

A water expert at New Mexico State University (NMSU) warns those levels are just the tip of the iceberg as a sluggish recharge of the river, combined with increased groundwater pumping in the years ahead, will create worse shortages in the near future.

Brian Hurd, an agricultural economics professor and president of the Universities Council on Water Resources was quoted recently in the El Paso Times, saying that the threat of coming water shortages in New Mexico and Texas represents a serious problem for farmers up and down the entire basin region.

"The real big deal is going to be the change in the intensity of pumping," Hurd told the Times (http://bit.ly/1ricO5E).

Hurd and government hydrologists agree that river flows in the Rio Grande will suffer more as the demand for groundwater increases as a result of growing population density and the need for more water for agricultural and industrial activities.

In a 2013 joint Upper Rio Grande Impact Assessment prepared by the U.S. Department of the Interior's Bureau of Reclamation, the U.S. Army Corp of Engineers and the Sandia Laboratory Climate Security Program, even at the current annual use of groundwater throughout the Basin, critical water shortages will intensify in the years ahead.

According to that assessment, in the Upper Rio Grande Basin of Colorado and New Mexico, water management challenges posed by a highly variable and extremely limited water supply have been exacerbated by a prolonged drought.

In addition to problems associated with heavy groundwater pumping, the assessment determined that pronounced changes in climate in future years are anticipated for the Upper Rio Grande. The climate modeling used to support the study suggested that average temperatures in the Upper Rio Grande Basin may rise by an additional 4 degrees to 6 degrees F by the end of the 21st century.

Simulations

These model simulations do not consistently project changes in annual average precipitation in this basin, but they do project changes to the magnitude, timing, and variability of inflows to the system. In addition to groundwater demand, the study detailed the following:

• Decreases in overall water availability

Supplies of all native sources to the Rio Grande are projected to decrease on average by about one third, while flows in the tributaries that supply the imported water of the San Juan-Chama Project are projected to decrease on average by about one fourth.

• Changes in the timing of flows

The seasonality of flows is projected to change. Anticipated changes include earlier snowmelt runoffs as well as increased variability in the magnitude, timing, and spatial distribution of streamflow and other hydrologic variables. Projections indicate that this basin will experience a decrease in summertime flows and less of a decrease (or potentially even an increase) in wintertime flows.

• Increases in the variability of flows

All simulations used in this study project an increase in the month-to-month and inter-annual variability of flows over the course of the century. The frequency, intensity, and duration of both droughts and floods are projected to increase.

While climate change will increase the risks of water shortage in the basin area, of more immediate concern is how communities and industry will react to current shortages. While recent drought conditions have lowered reservoir levels and decreased inflows to lakes, increased pumping of groundwater has helped to sustain adequate resources in the short term.

Challenges Ahead

But hydrologists say the time for such groundwater relief may be short lived as demand increases and groundwater levels continue to drop.

Zhuping Sheng, a hydrologist at the Texas A&M AgriLife Research and Extension Center in El Paso, draws a comparison with putting money in the bank.

"We're withdrawing more than we are depositing," he says.

He points out that in some areas around El Paso, for example, groundwater levels have dropped by as much as 200 feet over the last century.

Hydrologists say as groundwater continues to diminish as a result of slower recharge and greater use, population levels along the basin are expected to rise, adding a greater strain on the region's hydrology.

Adding to the overall problems are both the ongoing drought and lighter-than-normal snowpacks in the San Juan mountains in recent years. Water experts say significant and beneficial rains over the last two summer and fall seasons have helped, but it was "like putting a Band-Aid on a major wound."

As farmers prepare for planting in 2015, concerns are elevated over whether there will be enough water to bring their crops to another successful harvest. Good rains in the second half of this year should provide enough water to get the crop started, but experts say another dry summer could be devastating if those rains don't continue late into the growing season.

Arkansas Strikes Again!

In late 2013, during the happy aftermath of massive soybean yields, Arkansas producers — three of whom were the first to break the 100-bushel barrier — were reticent to predict another bin-busting crop for 2014.

Mercurial Mother Nature had smiled on their growing season and, they knew, she could just as easily be in a foul mood next time around.

But for many in the state, it turned out, she was just as happy in 2014. Numerous, extremely pod-heavy fields were easy to find — especially south of Forrest City.

Some 3.15 million acres were planted in soybeans this year.

As of late September, three producers had harvested 100-bushel-plus soybeans in fields that were entered in the state’s yield contest.

A repeat winner

According to Delta Farm Press Matt Miles, McGehee, Ark., was the first to repeat the yield feat. His Pioneer P45T11R soybeans cut 100.609 bushels.

Miles’ wife, Sherrie Kay, claimed her own green jacket with a field of Pioneer 48T53R beans that yielded 106.499 bushels.

Thus far, the big yield winner, however, is David Bennett (no relation to the author), who farms outside Lake Village in the southeast corner of the state. His field of Asgrow 4632 soybeans yielded 112.012 bushels — the highest total ever for an entrant in the Grow for the Green contest.

Several weeks before harvest, it was obvious that the central Delta and southeastern parts of Arkansas would bring in bumper soybean crops.

“There are great soybeans all over the area,” said Lanny Ashlock, Arkansas Soybean Promotion Board. “Rains were heavy farther north, but from around Helena south, rains were timely, and farmers were able to manage their crops well.”

Nelson Crow agreed. “We had to irrigate maybe three times,” says the Winchester producer, whose Group 3.9 soybeans last year yielded over 100 bushels. “It seems like every time we began to irrigate, it would rain.”

One key to escalating Arkansas soybean yields is shifting the crop from second-best soils to the best.

"Everybody's Pushing For Beans"

“It used to be in the Mid-South that you put soybeans wherever you didn’t have cotton or rice,” says Crow. “Now, they’ve come out of the closet, and with no more cotton, soybeans are going on our more productive ground.

“We have farmers across the Mid-South who are all trying to maximize bean yields — and there are some really good farmers. We’re all pushing these beans, trying different things, finding out what they can do. It really is new territory.”

A second key is yield contests. Crow says being involved in the yield competition “has at least doubled my knowledge of soybeans.”

The competitive drive of farmers has meant educating themselves on how best to manage the crop. “It’s pretty serious when I pull a combine out of a buckshot field and move it into a contest field to harvest before a rain,” says Matt Miles.

“I think it’s the best soybean contest in the U.S. I’ve looked at some others, and I think Arkansas is setting a precedent that others are trying to follow. The contest is doing what it was designed to do.”

The contests have “generated a ton of interest,” says Wes Kirkpatrick, Desha County Extension chair. “There are 16 contest fields in the county this year.”

‘You want to do it again’

Miles says he and consultant Robb Dedman “have enjoyed the contest. Once you do it, you want to do it again. You chase the yield, and want to compare things you’re trying with what other growers are doing. I’ve made so many contacts through this competition.”

Brad Doyle, president of the Arkansas Soybean Association (ASA), says the friendly competition among farmers “is a great story. In this process, we’re all learning from each other. We’re compiling all the data from the entry forms and, hopefully, we’ll be able to put something out through the ASA to show everyone what the contest entrants are doing to make these outstanding yields.”

Outside Dumas, producer Martin Henry says rains reduced his irrigations by half. “In a normal year, we’d irrigate six or seven times — this year, we irrigated only three times.”

Ashlock is keen to highlight Henry’s management skills.

“What’s unique is that he farms on heavy ground,” Ashlock says. “Even so, last year, his yield contest field harvested 98.5 bushels on a Sharkey clay-type soil. To me, that’s remarkable.”

Advocate for Irrigation

Henry is a big advocate of irrigation scheduling programs. “We’re fortunate to have good water around here.

“The whole farm is on the PHAUCET irrigation scheduler. That’s something that needs to be promoted. This is our third year using the program. Using it means wasting 30 percent less water. As
valuable as water is, we need to save every drop possible.”

Henry admits there was “a big learning curve” with PHAUCET. “It took a while,” he says, “but we’re comfortable with it now.

“You set up a field on the computer, plug in the flow rate from your well, and the program tells you the hole sizes to pop in the polypipe.

“Years ago, we’d just pop holes all the same, which meant one end of the field would have water, and we’d have to wait for half a day, or more, for the other end of the field to be irrigated.

“PHAUCET works. When the water is out, the field is covered. You aren’t just pouring water out the end of the field while waiting for the whole field to be covered. I wish everyone would try it.”

Henry also credits the yield contests in the state with nudging producers toward strict management of their soybean crops.

“Being involved in the Go for the Green contest has allowed us to learn so much by trying to push our beans. We wouldn’t have done that before.

“Now, we’re not just pushing one field — we’re pushing all of them. So, the contest has really helped Arkansas soybeans.”

Waiting for Proper Time to Irrigate

With seemingly abundant water supplies in the five Delta states of Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri and Tennessee, many can't understand why anyone would ever have to irrigate.  Crop histories show that at some point in every season irrigation would pay dividends in the five state area.

Recently Jason Krutz, irrigation specialist with Mississippi State University, took an ag editor from Delta Farm Press on a tour to educate about water issues facing the Mississippi Delta.  He discussed how the use of flow meters, moisture sensors, and surge valves have helped farmers grow the same, and sometimes, more crops with less water.

Krutz and several members of the Mississippi Sustainable Water Resources Task Force stopped at a field operated by Tim Clements near Leleand, MS.  They demonstrated how the new technology could one day help farmers alter the current situation in which Delta farmers are removing more water from the alluvial aquifer than it is taking in.

The Return of El Nino?

As most of you know, predicting the weather is about like throwing a dart at a board.  No one knows for sure what's going to happen.  However, it's Spring!  And us in the agriculture industry can't help but watch the sky's and the evening weather forecast.

Farmers are making the preparations.  In some places the seeds are already down and in Southern Texas, the sorghum is already knee high is some places.

Generally the forecasts are calling for a continued drought in the West and Southwest.  However, the National Weather Service, independent weather forecasters and university weather scientists are hinting at a change.  What is that change?  El Nino!  This could be very welcome news for the Southwest including an increased chance of rain in the mountains.

 Right now the National Weather Climate Prediction Center is calling for a 50-50 chance of an El Nino this year.  An El Nino is a fluctuation in the water temperatures of the tropical Pacific Ocean.  An El Nino means warmer water and an La Nina means colder water.

What Does This Mean For Farmers?

It all depends on the location of your farm or ranch, influences from water temps, wind and an ever-shifting tropical jet stream.  If there is no El Nino the Southwest could be looking at something reminiscent of the dust bowl.  However, even if El Nino is late developing that could mean a wet snowy winter which would lead into a great 2015.  

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has been noticing some positive changes in the water temperatures in the Pacific.

Nothing is written in stone.  So like most folks I'm suspicious of long range weather forecasts.  But anytime there is a possibility to help us get out of this drought then I'm all for it.  Is El Nino returning?  I sure hope so.